Nigeria’s GDP Outpaces Population Growth in Strongest Performance in 10 Years

A new Quartus Economics report confirms Nigeria's economy grew 8.34% over 2024–2025, the highest two-year expansion in over a decade, with per capita GDP rising 19.5%.

Nigeria's economy is firmly back on a growth trajectory, and fresh data is making it hard to argue otherwise. A new report by Quartus Economics, a Lagos-based research house, has confirmed that the country recorded cumulative GDP growth of 8.34 percent between 2024 and 2025 — the highest two-year expansion in more than a decade. For a nation that watched its per capita GDP shrink by 21 percent between 2020 and 2023, this turnaround is significant.

The report, titled The Journey to a Trillion-Dollar Economy: Nigeria on the Rise Again, drew data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Its conclusion was pointed: Nigeria is rising — and the numbers back it up.

Per Capita Income Makes a Sharp Reversal

Perhaps the most striking figure in the Quartus report is the recovery in per capita GDP. Despite Nigeria adding approximately 4.8 million people to its population in 2025 alone, economic output grew faster than population — pushing per capita GDP up by 19.5 percent from 2024 levels. Nigeria's per capita GDP also rose to 72 percent of the regional African average in 2025, compared to 67 percent the year before.

This marks a dramatic reversal from the 2020–2023 period, when GDP growth of just 0.97 percent lagged far behind population growth of 8.78 percent, causing living standards to decline sharply. Millions of Nigerians felt that pain through rising food prices, a weaker naira, and shrinking purchasing power.

Reform Momentum Drives the Recovery

The economic rebound is widely linked to the bold, painful reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu's administration since May 2023. Chief among these was the removal of Nigeria's long-standing fuel subsidy — a policy that had drained the federal treasury for years. The government also loosened foreign exchange controls and allowed a sharp devaluation of the naira, making Nigeria's economy more attractive to international investors.

Read More: Nigeria's Economy on the Rise: What the Trillion-Dollar Dream Means for You

While these reforms triggered what economists have described as the worst cost-of-living crisis in nearly three decades, they have dramatically strengthened Nigeria's external position. Foreign reserves climbed to a 13-year high of $50.5 billion in February 2026, while foreign direct investment surged to $720 million in the third quarter of 2025 — up from just $90 million in the preceding quarter. Global credit rating agencies, including Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poor's, have consistently affirmed Nigeria's improving economic direction.

Broader Reforms Reinforcing the Foundation

Beyond subsidy removal and forex liberalisation, several structural reforms have added depth to Nigeria's economic recovery. The government overhauled the national tax system through the creation of the National Revenue Service, restructured the banking sector through a recapitalisation exercise that attracted approximately N4.61 trillion in fresh capital — nearly 27 percent of which came from foreign investors — and rebased the national economy to better reflect current realities.

On the monetary side, the Central Bank of Nigeria's policy discipline has helped ease inflationary pressures, with 2026 projections pointing toward continued moderation. The Nigerian Stock Exchange recorded a robust 48.12 percent gain in 2025, outperforming most of its regional peers.

Growth Projections for 2026 Remain Positive

Looking ahead, multiple international institutions project continued expansion for Nigeria's economy in 2026. PwC Nigeria's Economic Outlook 2026 projects real GDP growth of around 4.3 percent this year, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant services sectors. The Mastercard Economics Institute similarly projects a 4.0 percent expansion for Nigeria in 2026 — well above the global average of 3.1 percent.

The International Energy Agency has also flagged a significant tailwind: with Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel — well above Nigeria's 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85 — the current oil price environment could generate significant revenue surpluses for the federal government, if production discipline holds.

Structural Challenges Remain

Despite the encouraging headline numbers, economists caution that Nigeria's growth story is still incomplete. The country's informal sector — representing an estimated 93 percent of the total workforce — largely remains excluded from the formal economy and from the benefits of macroeconomic growth. Workers earning the national minimum wage of N70,000 per month still face severe hardship amid food inflation and high energy costs.

The Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress have already called for fresh minimum wage negotiations by July 2026, citing worsening purchasing power. Meanwhile, the challenge of power supply continues to crush small businesses: at the Nigeria Business Summit 2026, industry operators revealed that diesel now costs approximately N1,820 per litre, with some manufacturers spending over N1 million per week just to keep their generators running.

For Nigeria's growth story to move from macroeconomic statistics to lived experience, experts argue that the next phase of reform must deliver affordable power, lower borrowing costs, and a formal financial system that is genuinely accessible to the country's 40 million micro, small and medium enterprises.

What It Means for Nigeria's Trillion-Dollar Dream

President Tinubu has made no secret of his ambition to grow Nigeria into a trillion-dollar economy. With 2025's strong performance, that goal — once considered aspirational — has moved measurably closer. If the current growth trajectory is sustained, if oil revenues are managed wisely, and if structural reforms deepen to include power, education, and security, Nigeria has the foundations to achieve one of Africa's most remarkable economic transformations.

The Quartus Economics report sums it up directly: "We can confirm that the economy is back on track." Whether ordinary Nigerians will feel that recovery in their wallets before the 2027 elections, however, remains the defining political question of the moment.