MILLION TO FACE ACUTE HUNGER BY JANUARY 2027 AS FEWS NET FLAGS WORSENING FOOD CRISIS

ABUJA, Monday July 27, 2026.

At least 16.99 million Nigerians will face acute hunger by January 2027, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network has projected, warning that conflict, climate shocks and high food prices will keep millions in crisis despite the December harvest. The figures, contained in FEWS NET’s Food Assistance Outlook Brief for July 2026 obtained by Sunday PUNCH, show a slight improvement from the current estimate of 20.99 million people in need of urgent food assistance in July 2026. But the number remains higher than January 2025 and above Nigeria’s five-year average.

The report places Nigeria fourth globally on the list of countries with the most people in need of food assistance, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and ahead of Yemen and Afghanistan. Nigeria was also named among just four countries expected to each contribute more than 10% of the total 145 million to 155 million people projected to need food assistance across 30 countries monitored by FEWS NET by January 2027.

According to FEWS NET, the crisis is being driven by “conflict that disrupts livelihoods, restricts cultivation, and constrains household income” across northern Nigeria. Even with the main harvest expected to be completed in December, relief will be partial. “Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate,” the report stated.

In the northwest, banditry has made large parts of Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto unsafe for farming. In the northeast, Boko Haram and ISWAP affiliates continue to displace communities in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. In the Middle Belt, farmer-herder clashes and flooding have destroyed farmland in Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa. The result is a population that depends heavily on markets at a time when prices remain 30 to 40 percent above 2023 levels.

Government agencies acknowledge the pressure. The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs said UN funding for Nigeria has dropped this year, forcing Abuja to take a larger role. NEMA said it has prepositioned relief materials in 6 zonal warehouses, but logistics will be stretched if floods hit multiple states. NIHSA and NIMET have placed 14 states on flood alert for July to September, including Benue, Kogi, Niger and Delta. If heavy rains destroy crops in the food basket states, supply will tighten further.

Health officials are also worried. The Medical Women’s Association of Nigeria on Monday called for mental health services to be integrated into Primary Healthcare to help communities cope with stress linked to food insecurity. In IDP camps across Borno and Benue, coordinators report rising cases of acute malnutrition in children under 5.

The economic context is not helping. Nigeria Customs must generate N7 trillion between July and December to meet its 2026 target of N11.074 trillion approved by the Senate. As at June, Customs had generated N4.043 trillion. To ease inflation, government adjusted vehicle tariffs in April and June, but that also means revenue must be found elsewhere. Households are spending over 60% of income on food, leaving little room for health, education or savings.

What could change the trajectory? Security is first. Without safer farms, cultivation will stay low. The Ministry of Defence on Monday reaffirmed partnership with NIMC to strengthen data integrity and national security. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, who visited Abuja last week, pledged 10 million euros for displaced persons and said “the spillover effects of the crisis in the Sahel are increasingly threatening all coastal states”. 

Second is agricultural support. Government has promised fast-maturing seeds and fertilizer, but delivery to conflict areas has been slow. Third is market access. Removing illegal checkpoints and fixing bad roads could cut transport costs faster than subsidies.

For now, the warning is clear: the December harvest will help, but not enough. With 17 million people at risk by January, Nigeria must scale food assistance, protect farms from floods, and improve security. The next 5 months will decide whether the country bends the curve or slips deeper into a food emergency. For millions of families, the difference will be whether they can afford three meals a day in 2027.